(PNA file photo)

MANILA – The OCTA Research Group on Saturday said the growth of Covid-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) has been decreasing steadily based on the seven-day moving average of new infections.

OCTA Research Group member, Dr. Guido David, tweeted the growth rate fell to 3 percent from 5 percent the day before.

“Once the daily growth rate becomes negative, new cases in the NCR are decreasing,” he posted on Twitter.

NCR’s reproduction number also decreased to 3.22 based on the January 11 data. 

Reproduction number is the number of individuals a Covid-19 case could infect.

While the decrease in growth rate is strong evidence that the trend in the NCR appears to be peaking, it is still subject to data backlog and late reports, David said.

“If this trend is real, we could expect 16K to 18K cases in the NCR today (Saturday) an 15K to 16K tomorrow (Sunday),” his tweet read.

In the recent two weeks, NCR recorded the most number of cases at 18,142, followed by Calabarzon with 9,172, cases, and Central Luzon with 3,325.

On Saturday, the country logged 39,004 new infections. (PNA)