GREEN DAY. The University of the Philippines Botanical Garden and Arboretum in Diliman, Quezon City serves as a vast playground for a young girl on Tuesday (April 18, 2023). The 16-hectare man-made rainforest provides respite from the prevailing hot and humid conditions. (PNA photo by Joan Bondoc)
MANILA – The likelihood of El Niño by June until the first quarter of 2024 has increased, an official of the weather bureau reported Tuesday.
From a 55-percent probability, the chances for an El Niño between June and August have increased to 80 percent, according to Deputy Administrator Esperanza Cayanan of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
The probability of El Niño between November and January 2024 also rose to about 87 percent.
"El Niño's possible impacts in some areas of the country are drought or dry spell, but this will be felt towards the last quarter," Cayanan said in a briefing.
It is possible to experience heavy rainfall prior to seeing the effects of El Niño since it will be rainy or "habagat" (southwest monsoon) season in June to September, Cayanan said.
"From our previous experience, it is possible to experience extreme rainfall events -- similar to Ondoy (Typhoon Ketsana) in 2009 when there was El Niño until 2010. Extreme (rainfall) was experienced prior to water shortage," she said.
Cayanan also mentioned that PAGASA's forecast for the month of April showed around 26 provinces could receive below normal rainfall while "generally normal" rains are expected in May.
In June, the western section of the country is forecast to experience rains and possible flooding due to habagat.
Normal conditions are likely by July, but Cayanan warned that flooding is still possible in the western section of the country. Isolated below normal rainfall, however, is forecast in Tarlac.
The western section may feel the effects of the enhanced southwest monsoon by August. Some areas such as the Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula and Bicol may receive below normal rainfall.
"Generally, we expect rains until September, and heavy rains in the western section. The peak when there could be many tropical cyclones during El Niño usually occurs in July," she said.
PAGASA is expecting one tropical cyclone in April; one or two in May and June; and about two to three each in July, August and September.
Meanwhile, Cayanan said Northern Luzon may experience the highest temperature of 40.9 °C in May while Metro Manila's temperature could reach 37.9 °C. (PNA)
