MANILA – Economic managers on Monday slashed the government’s 2023 growth assumption from 6.5-8 percent to 6-7 percent after considering the impact of external developments on the domestic economy.
At a briefing, Budget and Management Secretary and chair of the inter-agency Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) Amenah Pangandaman said they expect domestic output to decelerate next year from its robust performance this year due to several factors such as the slowdown in major advanced economies.
The DBCC, on the other hand, kept the 6.5-7.5 percent growth assumption for this year, after noting that growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), in the first three quarters of the year surpassed the full-year target after expanding by 7.7 percent.
“Growth is expected to pick up in 2024 to 2028 at 6.5 to 8.0 percent, as we push for government strategies and interventions of the Philippine Development Plan 2023-2028. These include modernizing agriculture and agri-business, revitalizing the industry sector, and reinvigorating the services sector, among others," Pangandaman said.
The growth assumption for 2024-2028 was not adjusted.
National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Undersecretary Rose Edillion, meanwhile, said tourism is expected to regain its momentum and contribute to the economy’s recovery.
She said while the inflow of foreign tourists has not yet fully recovered, this is cushioned by the continued increase of domestic tourists, bolstered by the easing of travel requirements vis-à-vis the pandemic-related policies.
Meanwhile, economic managers changed the 2022 inflation assumptions from 4.5-5.5 percent to 5.8 percent, the Dubai crude oil assumption from USD90-100 per barrel to USD98-100 per barrel, the foreign exchange assumption from PHP51-53 to PHP54-55 to a US dollar, the exports of goods from a growth of 7 percent to 4 percent and the imports of goods from 18 percent to 20 percent.
Economic managers also hiked the 2022 revenue projection to PHP3.5 trillion from PHP3.3 trillion during the DBCC meeting last July after the better-than-expected collections in the first 10 months this year.
“This is attributed to the improved tax collection and digitalization efforts of the government,” Pangandaman said.
Bureau of the Treasury data show that total revenues last October rose by 14.14 percent year-on-year to PHP288.9 billion and the end-October 2022 figure is up by 18.31 percent on an annual basis to PHP2.945 trillion. (PNA)