BMI revises upward PH GDP's 2023 outlook

By Kris Crismundo

November 9, 2023, 5:57 pm

MANILA – Fitch Solutions unit BMI has raised its growth forecast for the Philippine economy for the full year of 2023 following the strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth result in the third quarter of the year.

From a projection of 5.3 percent, BMI revised its GDP 2023 growth outlook for the country to 5.7 percent.

"The latest growth outturn leaves our whole-year forecast of 5.3 percent a little too downbeat given that the economy has to slow to around 4.6 percent in Q4 (fourth quarter) for this to materialize," BMI said in its economic analysis released Thursday.

The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported this day that the GDP expanded by 5.9 percent in third quarter 2023, higher than the 4.3 percent in the second quarter but lower than the 6.4 percent growth in the first quarter this year.

"As for 2024, we forecast 6.2 percent growth as domestic consumption growth should remain robust on the back of easing inflation," BMI said.

The 6.2-percent GDP outlook for the Philippines next year is on the back of external headwinds that are expected to weigh on the performance of the domestic economy.

The BMI global growth outlook is at 2.4 percent this year before slowing down to 2.1 percent the following year.

"The bigger picture is that the external sector is and will remain the biggest drag on growth over the coming quarters," it added.

Global headwinds have started to take a toll on Philippine exports, as exports only contributed 0.8 percentage point in the third quarter of 2023 from 1.2 percentage points in the second quarter. (PNA)